WFP and Mamdani Internal Shows Tied Mayoral Race at 51-49

A new internal poll released by allies of Zohran Mamdani shows him trailing former Governor Andrew Cuomo by just two points in a simulated final round of the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. With a 3-point margin of error, the result suggests a statistical dead heat.

The poll was commissioned by the Working Families Party's national PAC and New Yorkers for Lower Costs, a political action committee backing Mamdani. It was conducted by the progressive polling firm Data for Progress.

Initial results of the survey showed Cuomo leading the field with 37% of the vote, followed by Mamdani at 31%. However, the poll's most compelling finding emerged when it simulated the final round of the city's Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) system. In a head-to-head matchup that excludes undecided voters and reallocates support from other candidates, the race tightens to Cuomo 51% and Mamdani 49%.

As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns and their supporters typically only release internal data when it tells a favorable story. The decision to make these numbers public is likely a strategic move to build momentum and project viability.

Mamdani’s team may be hoping that by showing he can compete directly with Cuomo, he can consolidate the progressive vote. The goal would be to unify the left wing of the party, potentially peeling support from other candidates like third-place finisher Brad Lander.

It is also important to note the timing: the survey was conducted almost entirely before the first major televised debate, leaving it unclear how that event may have since shifted the dynamics of the race.

Poll Details: The survey of 819 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted from May 30 to June 4, 2025, using SMS and web panel respondents. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points.